March 4, 2008

This is the day for which we've all been so patiently waiting. After tonight, when all the results are counted, and we continue to puzzle over why Texas is like what it is, we should have a more clear indication of where the race is headed.

Here are my predictions.


Hillary Clinton will win Ohio by 5-7 points, Texas by 2-5 points, and Rhode Island by 6-8 points. Barack Obama picks up Vermont by 10-12 points. Then, tomorrow, momentum swings a bit in Clinton's favor, and superdelegates stop their mutiny over to Obama. Here we come, Pennsylvania.

<><>DEMOCRATS<><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>

THE FIELD

Clinton Pounces on Memo To Attack Obama on Nafta

By Nick Timiraos
Wall Street Journal
March 4, 2008

Among the closing arguments for the Democratic primaries in Ohio and Texas was a tussle over who said what to whom at a Canadian consulate meeting last month in Chicago…

Yet Another Democratic Wrinkle: Add-Ons

By June Kronholz
Wall Street Journal
March 4, 2008

The 4,048 Democrats who will meet in August to nominate a presidential candidate include district-level delegates, state-level delegates, pledged delegates, unpledged delegates, party-leader delegates, distinguished party-leader delegates. Then there are add-on delegates, and in some states, add-on applications are now open…

Hot Demand for Political Gear in a Hot Race

By Dan Levin
New York Times
March 4, 2008

The Democratic rivals have experienced a serious shortage of stickers, lawn signs and T-shirts…

Candidates Responding Almost as Fast as They Can Attack

By Brian Stelter
New York Times
March 4, 2008

Parrying a television ad with another has typically taken days if not weeks, but Barack Obama’s team did it within hours on Friday…

Clinton continues to press Obama on NAFTA
She says her Democratic rival gave Canadians 'the old wink-wink' by secretly telling them not to be offended by his criticisms of the trade pact.

By Johanna Neuman and Louise Roug
Los Angeles Times
March 3, 2008

Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, embarking on a campaign marathon that will last into the wee hours, stepped up attacks today on rival Sen. Barack Obama as they headed toward Tuesday's crucial primaries in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont…

Clinton continues to rap rival on national security

By Jill Lawrence and Kathy Kiely
USA Today
March 4, 2008

Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton spent her last day before key primary contests in Ohio and Texas raising questions about rival Barack Obama's fitness to lead on national security while the Illinois senator tried to tamp down expectations for a knockout win today…

CLINTON

Clinton Aims to Push Beyond Ohio and Texas

By Jackie Calmes
Wall Street Journal
March 4, 2008

AUSTIN, Texas -- Hillary Clinton faces the judgment of Texas and Ohio voters today in what she and her backers have declared "must win" contests, following 11 straight losses to Barack Obama. The big question: What constitutes a "win"?

To Women, So Much More Than Just a Candidate

By Eli Saslow
Washington Post
March 4, 2008

AKRON, Ohio -- Staring out at more than 100 empty seats in the small downtown auditorium, Marion Wagner looked quizzically at the podium and its state-of-the-art sound system. "Do I really need to talk into a microphone if there's hardly anybody here?" she asked…

OBAMA

Obama Republicans Carry Weight
In Texas and Ohio, Non-Democrats Play Potentially Decisive Role

By Nick Timiraos and Amy Chozick
Wall Street Journal
March 4, 2008

SAN ANTONIO -- Sen. Barack Obama is courting an unlikely constituency to try to deliver a knockout blow to Sen. Hillary Clinton today: Republicans and independents who supported President Bush…

Memo Gives Canada’s Account Of Obama Campaign’s Meeting On Nafta

By Michael Luo
New York Times
March 4, 2008

The denials were sweeping when Senator Barack Obama’s campaign mobilized last week to refute a report that a senior official had given back-channel reassurances to Canada soft-pedaling Mr. Obama’s tough talk on Nafta…

Many Eyes on Rezko Trial

By Catrin Einhorn
New York Times
March 3, 2008

The gallery was packed with news reporters Monday as the criminal trial of businessman Antoin Rezko opened in federal district court in Chicago. Potential jurors filed into the courtroom throughout the day, as lawyers began trying to select a panel to hear the case of the fast-food chain owner and real estate developer…

Blame in Canada

By Ian Austen
New York Times
March 3, 2008

OTTAWA — It’s not at all unusual for Stephen Harper, the prime minister of Canada, and the members of his cabinet to grilled by the opposition parties in Parliament. It isn’t common, however for the partisan bickering here to be focused on the Democratic primary in the United States…

Obama on the Hot Seat

By Michael PowellNew York Times
March 4, 2008

In the closing days of a primary campaign, Senator Barack Obama gets hit with several very tough questions…

Fundraiser's Kickback Trial Begins
Chicago Businessman Sold Property to Obama in 2005

By Peter Slevin
Washington Post
March 4, 2008

CHICAGO, March 3 -- For businessman Antoin "Tony" Rezko, the goal was to get close to politicians who might matter someday. He targeted a raft of up-and-comers, including a young state senator named Barack Obama…

Obama aides on defensive over Canadian memo

By Mark Memmott
USA Today
March 4, 2008

The Democratic presidential contenders argued Monday over whether an adviser to Sen. Barack Obama told Canadian officials that much of the debate during the campaign over trade has been political posturing, and if so, what that says about Obama. The dispute has entangled Canadian officials as well, who now say Obama and his aides have not suggested he has any different opinion about trade in private than he has in public…

<><>REPUBLICANS<><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>

McCAIN

McCain Blasts Russian Election
Remarks Go Far Beyond White House's Response; Criticism for U.N., Hamas

By Laura Meckler
Wall Street Journal
March 4, 2008

PHOENIX -- Sen. John McCain issued a harsh critique of this week's Russian elections, going well beyond the White House reaction, in a news conference aimed at showcasing his foreign-policy credentials…

McCain's Economy Platform: Big Tax Cuts, With Caveats

By Bob Davis
Wall Street Journal
March 3, 2008

WASHINGTON -- Imagining how John McCain, the Navy war hero, would play the role of commander in chief has been easy. Imagining how John McCain, the policy maverick, would lead as chief executive of the U.S. economy has been tougher…

Into the Fray Over the Cause of Autism

By Benedict Carey
New York Times
March 4, 2008

Senator John McCain entered into one of the most politicized scientific issues in a generation…

In Texas, McCain Seeks Winning Number

By Michael D. Shear
Washington Post
March 4, 2008

PHOENIX, March 3 -- Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) was poised Monday to clinch the Republican nomination as his rival, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, barnstormed across Texas refusing to concede that the race is all but over…

<><> PRIMARY CONTESTS<><><><><><><><><><><><><><>

Ohio

By T.W. Farnam
Wall Street Journal
March 3, 2008

Every four years, Ohio plays a central role in presidential elections, as one of the largest battleground states between Democrats and Republicans. On March 4, it will help shape the Democratic nominating contest as well, representing Hillary Clinton's best chance for a comeback…

Texas

By Matt PhillipsWall Street Journal
March 3, 2008

With some 23.5 million people scattered on roughly 262,000 square miles of varied geographic -- and cultural -- terrain, the Lone Star state presents an expensive challenge to the presidential contenders…

Rhode Island

By T.W. Farnam
Wall Street Journal
March 3, 2008

While Hillary Clinton's efforts have been focused largely on Ohio and Texas, she actually has a good chance of breaking her losing streak in Rhode Island…

Vermont

Wall Street Journal
March 3, 2008

Signs point to a victory for Sen. Barack Obama in Vermont's Democratic primary. Fifteen delegates are at stake in the Green Mountain state. "Vermont is strongly antiwar, liberal in its orientation -- and fits Obama to a T," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. A poll taken Feb. 24 by Rasmussen Reports shows Mr. Obama with a 24-point lead over New York Sen. Hillary Clinton…

Latino-Black Relations May Tilt Texas Results
Some See Obama Luring Hispanics Away From Clinton

By Joel Millman
Wall Street Journal
March 3, 2008

DALLAS -- Like black neighborhoods across America, the Oak Cliff area here has gone Latino, soul-food restaurants having given way to Salvadoran pupuserías…

Democratic Rivals Clash Before Pivotal Primaries

By Elisabeth Bumiller and John M. Broder
New York Times
March 4, 2008

Hillary Rodham Clinton accused Barack Obama of deception and faulted his Senate record as new evidence of discord surfaced within her own camp…

With Contests In 4 States, A Promise Of An Easier Night To Interpret Results

By John Harwood
New York Times
March 4, 2008

When 22 states selected Democratic delegates on a single day last month, the sheer scale made election night returns difficult to follow…

In Texas, Clinton’s Veterans Test Obama’s Rookies

By Randy Kennedy
New York Times
March 3, 2008

TEXARKANA, Tex. — Just 32 miles from a place called Hope, this small working-class city at the Texas and Arkansas border is “Clinton country,” as people here frequently and firmly remind you…

Obama, Clinton In Key Face-Off
Texas, Ohio Results May Determine Campaign's Future

By Anne E. Kornblut and Perry Bacon Jr.
Washington Post
March 4, 2008

BEAUMONT, Tex., March 3 -- Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton vowed to press on in her bid for the Democratic presidential nomination after critical primary tests in Ohio and Texas on Tuesday, even as advisers to Sen. Barack Obama said the latest round of voting would do little to improve her standing in a race in which she has been dealt setback after setback…

8 Questions That Today's Primaries Could Answer

By Dan Balz
Washington Post
March 4, 2008

Will the Democratic race end with today's results? 1. The one certain way to end the race is for Barack Obama to win both Texas and Ohio -- no small undertaking. That would erase any doubts that may exist about his ability to take big states or to energize a working-class base in a crucial general-election state. It would create enormous pressure on Hillary Rodham Clinton to bow out…

One Way or Another, Women Will Decide It
Today Could Be the Start of a Comeback for Hillary Clinton, or It Could Be the End of Her Campaign. In Interviews in and Around Austin, the Capital of Texas, Women Discussed Her Candidacy.

By Krissah Williams
Washington Post
March 4, 2008

Hernandez living room, North Austin -- Jennifer Cruz Hernandez's life goes like this: Get the kids ready for school. Work a shift at the hospital. Take her daughters to the gym for practice. Cook dinner. Help with homework. Bathe the kids. Put them to bed. Sleep, and repeat…

Can Clinton slow Obama-mentum?
She faces heavy pressure in Texas and Ohio primaries.

By Linda Feldmann
Christian Science Monitor
March 4, 2008

Voters in Ohio and Texas hold the future of the presidential race in their hands. On the latest Super Tuesday, March 4, if Hillary Rodham Clinton is able to win both states and slow Barack Obama's momentum toward the Democratic nomination, she will live to fight another day. The next big showdown will be April 22 in Pennsylvania…

Surveying Ohio's Democratic landscape
Geography, a popular governor and big-city mayors hold the keys to winning the primary.

By Scott Martelle
Los Angeles Times
March 4, 2008

COLUMBUS, OHIO — A campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination that has pivoted on race and gender could be decided here Tuesday by another divide, the state's urban north versus the rural south -- pitting Ohio's popular governor against a cadre of big-city mayors…

<><>RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE<><><><><><><><><><><>

McCain looks to California

By David Jackson
USA Today
March 4, 2008

WACO, Texas — John McCain and his aides are already thinking about which states to target in the fall and one tops the list: California…

<><>WAR/TERROR<><><><><>><><><><><><><><><><><><>

Violence Leaves Young Iraqis Doubting Clerics

By Sabrina Tavernise
New York Times
March 4, 2008

Many young people in Iraq say they have grown disillusioned with religious leaders and skeptical of the faith that they preach…

1 comment:

mprocopi said...

OK, so I think that in Ohio, Clinton will win by seven points. I know Obama won Vermont already so that sucks, but you were right. I think Clinton will win Texas by three points at the most, and Rhode Island by nine points. Is this a stretch? We shall see!